Gilles Bransbourg has been invited by the College of France on the recommendation of Professors Frantz Grenet and Jean-Luc Fournet.
Right: Fresco depicting the Isis Geminiana being loaded, from columbarium 31 of the necropolis at Via Laurentina, Ostia, AD 200–250 (Musei Vaticani, inv. 79638). CC Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 International.
Abstract
The so-called Justinian Plague, originating in Central Asia, reached Roman Egypt in 541 CE. Literary accounts, combined with the presence of the pathogen Y. pestis at multiple burial sites from the period, confirm the scale of the event. Recent research suggests that the demographic collapse that likely followed marks the true end of Antiquity. But quantitative data is lacking.
In this regard, Egypt represents a true exception, thanks to the density of its primary sources—tens of thousands of papyri that have survived in the dry desert sands. Yet the plague is mentioned there only once among more than seventeen thousand documents published and digitized to date for the 6th century.
For their part, the vast majority of tax and accounting records from the period paint a picture of a stable province, providing the imperial authorities with the payments expected of it.
In this context, recently published papyri may offer a window into “the year of the plague in 541,” confirming the existence of a serious but temporary crisis in production.
What can we infer from this?
First, the Plague of Justinian and the Black Death of the 14th century are not comparable. The return to normalcy was too rapid. Second, these archives confirm a route of transmission via the Red Sea: indeed, the plague traveled up the Nile, whereas an African origin would have led to a south-to-north spread. This reinforces the idea that the contagion originating in Central Asia first struck the Indian subcontinent.
Finally, while the Eastern Roman Empire did indeed collapse in the 7th century, surviving only around its geographical core, it is likely erroneous to view this as a direct consequence of the plague that occurred a century earlier. Other factors must be taken into account, including climatic ones, and must incorporate the emergence onto the historical stage of new players destined to play a major role—notably the Arabs and Slavs.
