Abstract
Changes in species distribution associated with human-induced climate change have significant consequences for ecosystems and human well-being. Despite mounting evidence, our understanding of biodiversity redistribution remains incomplete, with distribution changes documented for only 0.6% of known species. Contrary to previous meta-analyses on biodiversity redistribution, I will demonstrate the extreme variability in the magnitude and direction of shifts in species’ range positions (e.g., the cold/leading edge, the centroid of the range, or the warm/trailing edge) over time. Scientists often use niche models based on historical species distributions to predict changes in species distributions, but it remains unclear how well these predictions align with observed changes. By comparing predictions from niche-based models to actual observations from over 9,500 reports of species distribution changes across land and sea, I will show that while niche models tend to get the direction right—especially for marine species—they often fail to predict the pace of species redistribution. One potential reason for these discrepancies is the lack of consideration for microclimatic processes when training niche models. Focusing on forest ecosystems, I will finally demonstrate that niche models trained on microclimates can outperform traditional niche models trained solely on macroclimatic grids.
