Abstract
Epidemics can lead to a rapid and significant influx of patients into hospitals. To plan healthcare capacity as effectively as possible, Regional Health Agencies and hospital directors need forecasts that allow them to anticipate this influx. How many beds will be needed? When will the peak occur? Is it necessary to implement a contingency plan? It is also important to assess how public health interventions are likely to alter the course of the epidemic. In this course, I will present the techniques used to predict the course of an epidemic and evaluate the impact of interventions. I will discuss the many factors that can complicate the forecasting process.
