Abstract
When an infectious disease emerges, it is important to quickly estimate its characteristics—such as transmissibility and severity—in order to assess the risks it poses to public health. However, this estimation is difficult because epidemics are only imperfectly observed. For example, surveillance systems identify only a small proportion of infections—generally the most severe ones; transmission chains are rarely known, etc. In this course, I will present methods for estimating these key epidemiological parameters based on incomplete data. These approaches, deployed in real time, have become essential for “making the data speak” and guiding the response to outbreaks of emerging diseases.
