14:00 to 15:00
Lecture

Transmission: A Highly Heterogeneous Process

Simon Cauchemez
Amphithéâtre Maurice Halbwachs, Site Marcelin Berthelot
Open to all, subject to availability
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Abstract

For several infectious diseases, such as SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2, a small number of cases account for the majority of transmission events. This is referred to as super-spreading. In this course, I will explore the factors that may explain this phenomenon and the impact it can have on epidemic dynamics. Furthermore, when faced with an epidemic, each member of society is likely to respond differently. Some may drastically reduce their social contacts out of fear of becoming infected, while others will ignore all recommendations. This individual response can vary depending on the epidemiological situation, the perceived severity of the outbreak, the behavior of those close to them, their information ecosystem, and so on. Just like the infectious agent, misinformation can spread throughout the population. I will highlight the importance of better accounting for behavioral factors to improve models. I will also discuss the need to model the inequalities observed during epidemics in order to define more effective control strategies.